THE FATE OF EMPIRES: WHERE DOES INDIA STAND TODAY?
- Madhukar Dama
- Apr 15
- 3 min read
History does not repeat, they say — but it often rhymes.
In his deeply reflective essay “The Fate of Empires,” Sir John Glubb, a British general and historian, observed a recurring life cycle in almost every major civilization over the past 3,000 years. Whether Roman, Persian, Arab, Ottoman, British, or others — their rise and fall followed a strikingly predictable pattern, usually over a span of 250 years.
Glubb identified seven stages:
1. Pioneering (Outburst) — a phase of raw courage, sacrifice, and unity.
2. Conquest — military or internal mastery, marked by discipline and resilience.
3. Commerce — expansion of trade, systems, and wealth creation.
4. Affluence — comfort, luxury, urbanisation, and social pride.
5. Intellect — a rise in education and debate, but also in ego and confusion.
6. Decadence — entertainment over ethics, image over reality, division over duty.
7. Decline and Collapse — institutions rot, morality erodes, trust vanishes.
Each empire believed it was eternal — until it wasn’t.
This cycle wasn’t driven by war alone, but by internal decay: a loss of meaning, sacrifice, and shared values.
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INDIA THROUGH THE LENS OF GLUBB’S CYCLE
Where does modern India fit in this timeline?
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1. PIONEERING (1947–1970s)
India’s birth as a sovereign nation came with blood, sweat, and dreams.
Sacrifice wasn’t abstract — it lived in homes that lost sons and slept hungry.
There was unity in building a new, pluralistic identity — despite partition.
This was our outburst of idealism.
Stage: PASSED
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2. CONQUEST (1970s–1990s)
India didn’t conquer foreign lands — but conquered internal chaos.
We defeated famine with the Green Revolution, embraced nuclear strength, and put satellites in space.
This was a silent, civilizational assertion.
Stage: PASSED
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3. COMMERCE (1991–2010)
The liberalisation of the economy unlocked India’s entrepreneurial spirit.
A new middle class emerged.
Foreign brands arrived. Stock markets surged.
IT hubs flourished. Jobs migrated to cities. So did dreams.
Stage: MID TO LATE
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4. AFFLUENCE (2010–Present)
Affluence shows in gated communities, weekend brunches, shopping festivals, and vanity projects.
Our cities glow with LED-lit ambitions.
But so do our hospital ICUs, debt charts, and emotional disorders.
Luxury is abundant. Simplicity is rare.
Stage: FULL SWING
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5. INTELLECT (Parallel Phase)
India now has global universities, think tanks, and digital platforms.
But much of this intellect is monetised or politicised.
The youth are informed — but often directionless.
Opinions overflow. Wisdom is rare.
Stage: OCCURRING ALONGSIDE AFFLUENCE
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6. DECADENCE (Creeping In)
Signs are clear:
Nationalism without introspection
Entertainment over ethics
Overconsumption, screen addiction, lifestyle diseases
Breakdown of joint families and rise of isolation
Corruption dressed as competence
Values are replaced by visibility.
Gurus become brands. Leaders become celebrities. Students become products.
Stage: BEGINNING OF DECADENCE
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7. DECLINE? (Future at Risk)
India is not collapsing — but cracks are visible:
Farmers dying while cities feast.
Unemployment despite degrees.
Mental illness despite gadgets.
Migration, climate breakdown, and institutional decay.
Yet, decline is not destiny.
Empires fall when they refuse to see what stage they are in.
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THE INDIAN EXCEPTION?
India is not like other empires. It is not just a country — it is a civilization.
Its roots go beyond the modern state.
Its scriptures, saints, villages, rivers, and indigenous wisdom still whisper truths that no market can sell.
But if India’s soul is silenced by greed, distraction, and division, it will repeat the fate of all other empires.
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A CHOICE BEFORE COLLAPSE
We still have a chance to change course — not through revolution or reform alone, but through inner correction:
Choosing truth over appearances
Decentralising power and food
Living with less, but meaningfully
Raising children with ethics, not just marks
Replacing outrage with awareness
No empire escapes time.
But a civilization — if awake — can outlive empires.
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